XRP Price Speculation

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Re: XRP Price Speculation

Postby kanaas » Thu Oct 29, 2015 4:38 pm

jaydenbitcoin wrote:There's 66 billion reasons for Ripple not to abandon XRP, https://ripple.com/xrp-portal/


reasons yes, but no clear ways to use them.
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Re: XRP Price Speculation

Postby JoelKatz » Thu Oct 29, 2015 5:00 pm

Bad strategy: We can try to convince people to use XRP even for cases where it doesn't make sense.

Good strategy: We can enable people to use XRP for every case where it makes sense.
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Re: XRP Price Speculation

Postby kanaas » Thu Oct 29, 2015 5:52 pm

JoelKatz wrote:Bad strategy: We can try to convince people to use XRP even for cases where it doesn't make sense.

Good strategy: We can enable people to use XRP for every case where it makes sense.


Agreed. The problem is that it doesn't make sense anymore with ILP.
MM's is a laugh as they will only show up AFTER a use case comes in place
So the ONLY primary use case will be bridge (use cases as store of value, currency as means of payment are secondary and build on the primary)
But in a multi-ledger ILP interconnected web, fiat will become king. Once again. But now in a digital format.
My bet? The digital USD, than RMB and than EUR will take center stage in that digital FX environment. Perhaps in a different order....
But no BTC, no XRP or whatever new kids in the game will surpass the bosses once they are settled on the same railways...
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Re: XRP Price Speculation

Postby JoelKatz » Thu Oct 29, 2015 7:14 pm

kanaas wrote:Agreed. The problem is that it doesn't make sense anymore with ILP.

I don't see how ILP changed anything. You could always use fiat as a bridge asset. The arguments for why XRP is a good bridge asset are unchanged. It has no counter-party, it has no particular jurisdiction, its supply is fixed, it's not subject to arbitrary rules, and so on. The only significant change ILP brings is that it's now technically possible for XRP to bridge assets that trade on private ledgers, which is the majority of assets.
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Re: XRP Price Speculation

Postby bambino2105 » Thu Oct 29, 2015 9:36 pm

Well in my opinion its a matter of wrong expectations. Im not saying that this is Ripple's fault, but most people who bought xrp had bought it because they thought "once big banks step in" the demand will spike trough the roof.

If i understand correctly that will not happen anymore as banks will not primary use xrp in their own ledgers right? So this also means that we probably can not expect the xrp price to rally like btc did, which most investors where hoping for.

Also - and im not saying this is true - i cant help thinking that it might be some kind of strategy. As the CEO who left still has hundreds of millions of xrp which he thought where worth millions. So this way you hit him as well. Secondly that 'jed story' may have scared big banks, so it wouldnt be strange that ripple have chosen to find away around the xrp problem. And yes thats pure speculation..
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Re: XRP Price Speculation

Postby JoelKatz » Thu Oct 29, 2015 9:43 pm

bambino2105 wrote:Well in my opinion its a matter of wrong expectations. Im not saying that this is Ripple's fault, but most people who bought xrp had bought it because they thought "once big banks step in" the demand will spike trough the roof.

What I'm trying to understand is how ILP changed that. If they were thinking the demand would come from XRP being used as a vehicle currency, well now XRP can be a vehicle currency between banks even if they're not willing to issue assets on a public ledger. So why doesn't that story get better?
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Re: XRP Price Speculation

Postby bambino2105 » Thu Oct 29, 2015 10:54 pm

JoelKatz wrote:
bambino2105 wrote:Well in my opinion its a matter of wrong expectations. Im not saying that this is Ripple's fault, but most people who bought xrp had bought it because they thought "once big banks step in" the demand will spike trough the roof.

What I'm trying to understand is how ILP changed that. If they were thinking the demand would come from XRP being used as a vehicle currency, well now XRP can be a vehicle currency between banks even if they're not willing to issue assets on a public ledger. So why doesn't that story get better?


well, correct me if im wrong. when people posted that ilp doesnt use xrp i was assuming it doesnt use xrp for their transfers, so as a fee for each transaction.

i thought that for every transaction that takes place in the ripple network you need a tiny amount of xrp, right? and what i understood is that that tiny amount gets destroyed...which drives the xrp demand up, and raise the value.

so assuming that is correct and banks join the club, then millions of transactions a day, even if they only need a tiny amount of xrp per transaction, the demand will spike through the roof...

if i understand correctly the ilp system is a seperate system which doesnt need the xrp transaction fee. or did i misunderstood that? because if that is the case i does make a big difference right?
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Re: XRP Price Speculation

Postby JoelKatz » Thu Oct 29, 2015 11:34 pm

bambino2105 wrote:well, correct me if im wrong. when people posted that ilp doesnt use xrp i was assuming it doesnt use xrp for their transfers, so as a fee for each transaction.

Correct.

i thought that for every transaction that takes place in the ripple network you need a tiny amount of xrp, right? and what i understood is that that tiny amount gets destroyed...which drives the xrp demand up, and raise the value.

Maybe microscopically.

So assuming that is correct and banks join the club, then millions of transactions a day, even if they only need a tiny amount of xrp per transaction, the demand will spike through the roof...

No, that was never the plan. And really that would never work. XRP was used as a transaction fee strictly as a spam-prevention method.

if i understand correctly the ilp system is a seperate system which doesnt need the xrp transaction fee. or did i misunderstood that? because if that is the case i does make a big difference right?

Correct.

Generating demand for XRP through destruction of transaction fees was never the plan and would not have worked. You can't build a robust market for an asset with a fixed supply through destruction of that asset.
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Re: XRP Price Speculation

Postby bambino2105 » Fri Oct 30, 2015 12:29 am

thanks for all the explanation, much apprciated!

but even if it was not the plan, even if its only on micro level - and yes im aware ripple can change the fee amount - isnt it true that if millions of daily transactions will cause a much faster xrp burn then we see now, and therefor drives the value of xrp up?

i mean lets say the fee is now 1 xrp. a million transactions a day means 1 million xrp. xrp that people need to buy before the transaction takes place, so that will mean they have to buy it on the market and drive the price up, right?

or does ripple monitor this closely and will the fee be reduced automatically to lets say 0.1xrp in case that kind of transactions takes place?

and most banks already are located globally. so i assume they will only use xrp as a bridge currency to exchange/transfer to and from small markets they do not own. i mean if i have a bank in hongkong with honkong dollar iou and a bank in holland with euro iou, then its probably best to just trade iou's instantly between my own banks instead of using a xrp bridge right?

and maybe a stupid question, but can two different ilp's communicate with each other without using the ripple network?

so lets say i am rabobank and i want to trade with a bank in the usa, both using their own ilp. can i make some deals with the usa bank to trade iou's to avoid or get better transfer rates?
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Re: XRP Price Speculation

Postby JoelKatz » Fri Oct 30, 2015 12:55 am

i mean lets say the fee is now 1 xrp. a million transactions a day means 1 million xrp. xrp that people need to buy before the transaction takes place, so that will mean they have to buy it on the market and drive the price up, right?

Microscopically, maybe. But if the fees aren't negligible, people won't pay them. There's no mechanism to coerce people to use the network. Using destruction to drive the value of an asset in fixed supply is just untenable.

and most banks already are located globally. so i assume they will only use xrp as a bridge currency to exchange/transfer to and from small markets they do not own. i mean if i have a bank in hongkong with honkong dollar iou and a bank in holland with euro iou, then its probably best to just trade iou's instantly between my own banks instead of using a xrp bridge right?

No, because if they trade IOUs, they have to settle. If they use XRP as an intermediary asset, they don't.

and maybe a stupid question, but can two different ilp's communicate with each other without using the ripple network?

There aren't "two different ILP's" any more than there are two different world wide webs. The purpose of ILP is to permit ledgers to interact with each other directly.

so lets say i am rabobank and i want to trade with a bank in the usa, both using their own ilp. can i make some deals with the usa bank to trade iou's to avoid or get better transfer rates?

There is no technical obstacle to you using any connector you want. You don't even have to trust that connector.

ILP permits XRP to bridge even assets that trade only on private ledgers.
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